Bangladesh’s Election Crisis: Excluding the Awami League Could Destabilise South Asia

The interim government’s ban on Bangladesh’s largest political party undermines democracy, empowers extremists, and threatens the region’s fragile stability

As Bangladesh heads towards a national election, political uncertainty and unrest are intensifying. What should have been a routine democratic exercise now risks becoming a turning point with profound consequences, not only for Bangladesh’s internal stability, but also for the geopolitical balance of South Asia.

For the first time since independence in 1971, an unelected interim government, lacking constitutional legitimacy, has banned the activities of the Awami League, the country’s oldest and largest political party, and suspended its registration. The move has stunned observers both at home and abroad. In any democracy, banning a mainstream political party is indefensible and sets a dangerous precedent.

A Blow to Democracy

Bangladesh’s political history is marked by alternating periods of civilian and military rule, both often marred by corruption, repression, and human rights abuses. Those responsible for wrongdoing should indeed face justice, but justice must be applied individually, not collectively. Punishing an entire political party for the alleged actions of some of its members through an ordinance is an act of political vengeance, not the rule of law.

Ironically, while the Awami League, which led Bangladesh’s independence struggle and laid the foundations of the modern state, has been sidelined, the interim regime has reinstated the registration of Jamaat-e-Islami, a party long associated with atrocities committed during the 1971 Liberation War. Jamaat and its auxiliary militias, Razakar, AlBadr, and Al-Shams, directly aided Pakistan’s army in the killing of three million people and the sexual violence against more than 200,000 women.

Rehabilitating such a party while outlawing the one that led the independence movement defies both logic and morality.

Political Engineering and Rising Extremism

The Bangladesh Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have long been the country’s two dominant political forces, with smaller parties such as the Jatiya Party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Islami Andolan Bangladesh playing secondary roles.

By seeking to hold an election without the participation of the Awami League, the Jatiya Party, and the 14-Party Alliance, the interim government risks turning the vote into a managed exercise, an attempt to manufacture consent rather than reflect it.

Jamaat-e-Islami has never been a significant electoral force, rarely winning more than a handful of parliamentary seats. Yet the BNP’s internal divisions, combined with the Awami League’s exclusion, have created a political vacuum that Islamist groups are now attempting to fill.

Under new electoral rules that prohibit coalition parties from using a shared symbol, smaller religious parties could gain a disproportionate advantage. The BNP has already left 63 of the 300 parliamentary seats open for its allies, many of whom lack voter recognition.

In the absence of the Awami League, Jatiya Party, and the 14-Party Alliance, Jamaat-eIslami will be in an advantageous position in these constituencies due to the BNP’s decision to nominate weak candidates, and its number of seats in Parliament is likely to increase. Jamaat is also reportedly urging the interim government to introduce a proportional representation system in future elections, a change that could further boost its parliamentary presence.

Such manoeuvring could enable Jamaat and its affiliates to re-establish themselves as a parliamentary force, effectively reviving religion-based politics that Bangladesh has worked for decades to contain. The outcome would erode the secular foundation of the Bangladeshi state and empower groups whose ideologies are incompatible with the pluralism on which the nation was founded.

Regional Implications

Bangladesh’s democratic backsliding would have far-reaching consequences beyond its borders. The country occupies a strategic position between India, China, and the Bay of Bengal, and its stability has long been a cornerstone of regional security.

An election held without the participation of major political parties would lack legitimacy and credibility, potentially triggering widespread protests and economic turmoil. Such instability could create openings for extremist networks, undermine counterterrorism cooperation, and disrupt vital trade and supply routes across South Asia.

For India, political disorder in Bangladesh could heighten cross-border tensions and complicate security coordination. For China, which has invested heavily in infrastructure, prolonged chaos could threaten ongoing projects and weaken Dhaka’s reliability as an economic partner.

For the United States, the European Union, and Japan, Bangladesh’s democratic decline would erode investor confidence and complicate engagement with one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. A politically fragile Bangladesh would also become more vulnerable to external manipulation, undermining its ability to balance the competing interests of New Delhi, Beijing, and Washington.

The Return of Religion-Based Politics

The growing assertiveness of Jamaat-e-Islami and allied Islamist movements has been evident in their recent “March to Dhaka” demonstrations, which have demanded five significant changes, including the introduction of a proportional representation system and the banning of the Jatiya Party and the 14-Party Alliance.

These groups present themselves as defenders of democracy, but their ultimate objective is to restore religion-based politics in Bangladesh’s secular system. Excluding the Awami League from the political process would grant such forces a legitimacy they could never achieve at the ballot box. It risks transforming Bangladesh from a model of secular democracy in the Muslim world into a state vulnerable to religious nationalism and extremism.

What the International Community Must Do

The United Nations, the Commonwealth, and Bangladesh’s democratic partners must not remain passive. A free, fair, and inclusive election under a neutral and credible caretaker government is crucial to restoring public trust and ensuring long-term stability.

Diplomatic engagement, not quiet observation, is needed. Without it, an exclusionary election will legitimise authoritarianism and embolden extremist forces, undermining democracy not only in Bangladesh but across South Asia.

A Critical Juncture

More than five decades after independence, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The ideals of secularism, democracy, and justice that inspired its birth are once again under threat.

The participation of the Awami League in the upcoming election is not merely a political question; it is a prerequisite for Bangladesh’s democratic legitimacy, internal peace, and regional stability.

South Asia cannot afford another crisis born of exclusion and extremism. The world must act before it is too late.

Prof. Dr Md. Habibe Millat is a Bangladeshi political analyst, Medical professional, and former Member of Parliament, Bangladesh, specialising in governance, democracy, and regional stability in South Asia